Anti DRIC pic borrowed from the anti DRIC site too. Bet they don't care.

Borrowed from a friend who went a little further in adding up the numbers with regard to Bridge Tolls, Traffic, and the absolute inability to repay such massive amounts of capital that will be required for a Government Run International Bridge Crossing.

So… let’s break down the numbers:

A 2008 Study says that “The four-lane bridge carries more than 10,000
commercial vehicles on a typical weekday”

A quote (without citation) from Wikipedia states “10,000+ trucks per
day, 4000+ autos per day” cross the current bridge.

Autos, Passenger Vehicles
including driver and passengers
Passenger Vehicle with trailer
Bus, including driver and passengers

Class A 0 – 38,000 lbs. $2.75/axle
Class B 38,001 lbs. – 56,000 lbs. $3.25/axle
Class C 56,001 lbs. – 145,000 lbs. $4.50/axle

If the average truck is Class B and has 5 axle’s the toll would be $16.25
Using the 10,000 trucks figure would net $162,500 per day

Now add in 4000 passenger cars & motorcycles at the $4.00 rate yields
another $16,000

65,152,500 Per Year

Yeah, there’s money in it.

If the ambassador bridge were to close and the $4 Billion it would
take a full 61 years of ZERO INTEREST 100% payments to pay it off.

However, the Ambassador Bridge is NOT CLOSING and there is no zero
interest money and there can not be 100% payments!

IF the 2 bridges split the profit right down the middle (which they
won’t, since “competition” is expected to decrease toll prices) the
new bridge might net $32,576,250 before expenses.

Let’s think about interest for a minute. How much is interest on $4
BILLION DOLLARS? Well, governments tend to get much lower rates than
we get on our home mortgages, so let’s suppose they borrow money just
under the rate of inflation at a sweet 2% per year. Without paying ANY
principle annual interest payments (assuming annual compounding, which
is overly optimistic) are $80,000,000.

How do we pay $80 Million per year in interest with $32.5 Million net revenue?

(Wait. Maybe my numbers were off. DOUBLE THE TOLLS. $65 Million? Still
won’t cover it.)

NOTE: These numbers are a HUGE stretch in over-optimism in an attempt
to see a hint of a chance at this project making cash flow. Interest
is not 2%, it’s likely double that or more. Gross Profit before debt
service is not 100%, a large portion of that goes to pay maintenance
and staff. The stark reality is more likely to be an attempt to pay
$240 Million per year in Interest with $20 Million.

You just have to love optimism.

8 comments for “DRIC NICT GRIBC

  1. June 21, 2011 at 12:28 pm

    Here’s the only real number you need to know: Michigan taxpayers are at no financial risk. Canada has offered to cover the state’s costs of building the bridge, up to $550 million. Canada will assume off the risk, not Michigan.

    That came from Roy Norton, the consul general of Canada; not from an unknown “friend” who is really the teabagger group AFP. The only people against the bridge are those paid to be by the Moroun family, and that includes the AFP. Actually, it also includes those duped by the AFP with the made up numbers using the millions of dollars from the Moroun family to spread those lies.

    • JGillman
      June 21, 2011 at 12:40 pm

      Roy is lying.

      When the interest payments cannot be made due to the poorly performing (read: low traffic numbers) toll revenues, the principal amounts owed will be added to the money owed to Canada.

      I was a REPO man once. I used to take things from people who didn’t understand that process.

      Anyhow, just do your own math. show me how it works. Don’t just hyperbolize all over the place, its unbecoming.

      • June 28, 2011 at 3:08 pm

        Any proof? I didn’t think so. The only person with a history of lyign is you.

        There is no math needed.

        • Jason Gillman Jr.
          June 28, 2011 at 4:06 pm

          Lulz, hahah, history of lying.

          As you say, proof?

          • June 30, 2011 at 2:15 pm

            Yep. Back up your figures. Shouldn’t you be busy harassing a charitable service organization?

          • JGillman
            June 30, 2011 at 4:27 pm

            Buck up my “negative Nellie” friend. I know the comeback fairy has left you with nothing under the pillow.

            You are answering the wrong person. No surprise.

  2. B Smith
    June 22, 2011 at 10:39 am

    There is more at stake here than just finances. The current bridge structure is at end of life. It cannot continue to handle the load of traffic that it has. Further, the Ambassador Bridge company, sponsor of most of the Anti DRIC propaganda does not have the permits to twin or update their span (including environmental assessments) and have repeatedly lost in the Canadian court system. The infrastructure on the Canadian side of Ambassador Bridge cannot sustain the current level of traffic, completely shutting the Huron Church business district and chunks of the I-75 corridor during afternoon hours. This causes significant backups on the Detroit side of the bridge, with trucks lined up for miles waiting to get through to go to Canada. As someone who crosses the boarder 4 times a week, the wait to get on the bridge is frequently over 1 hour.

    There are alternatives, trucks can go through New York state. That would take their fillups, lunches, and secondary cash outlay’s away from Michigan. That would hurt the truck stops along the I-75 corridor.

    Using purely financial analysis, the US would never have built the interstate system, something that generates no direct cash income, but enables billions of dollars in trade. The bridge falls into the infrastructure category, like the electrical Grid (also privately held and falling into decay), road system, and air transportation system.

    If there were no profit in the final solution, the Ambassador Bridge corp would not be spending the money it is to stop the DRIC project (by hiring lobbyists, advertisements, and such). So, go to Canada a couple of times at 5PM, wait in the lines to get back, take a look at the real situation, not some numbers on paper. Look at the adverse impact on both sides of the water due to the Ambassador bridge, then weigh the human and second order impacts into the equation. There is far more at stake here than just dollars, which an over simplified analysis omits.

    • JGillman
      June 22, 2011 at 12:51 pm

      Huh. You said:

      The infrastructure on the Canadian side of Ambassador Bridge cannot sustain the current level of traffic, completely shutting the Huron Church business district and chunks of the I-75 corridor during afternoon hours.

      yet traffic has been down 43%

      Amb bridge also wishes to build second span for back up and switchover.

      Then there is that NY state alternative hogwash. Drive how many hundred miles? Right. If the delays are tough, look to customs, not ABC.

      Profit and cost comparisons between private and public can hardly be realistic. OF COURSE it is more profitable to the Moroun family to fight this and KEEP the business in their hands. Going to give you a great big DUH for that.

      Bottom line is Canada has wanted to steal the bridge from them for decades. What a great plan to help them do it.

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